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but what about states like michigan, nevada, pennsylvania, how much are they in play? especially since pennsylvania, president obama won that one, but he's not apparently taking for granted clinton will be campaigning there in his behalf? >> pennsylvania has a million more registered democrats than republicans. so it is a state that republicans have tried to contest in the last few presidential elections and have failed. but there's always sort of enough of an opportunity there that they end up making a last-minute push there. the other thing to remember is that when you're campaigning in western pennsylvania, you're hitting the tv markets in even iowa. so you do get a little bit of a t two-fer there as well. >> going to be a crazy busy couple of days for karen, for everyone. >>> the race for president is in a dead heat, so where do you think the candidates are spending a lot of their time other than ohio? there isn't another place they're spending their time. ohio, ohio, ohio. we'll go live. ...and in the tiniest details. ♪ and sometimes both. nature valley granola
but what about states like michigan, nevada, pennsylvania, how much are they in play? especially since pennsylvania, president obama won that one, but he's not apparently taking for granted clinton will be campaigning there in his behalf? >> pennsylvania has a million more registered democrats than republicans. so it is a state that republicans have tried to contest in the last few presidential elections and have failed. but there's always sort of enough of an opportunity there that they...
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with races all tied up in places like nevada, arizona, montana, north dakota, wisconsin and connecticut. it could be a nail biter on tuesday night. athena jones, cnn, washington. >>> and in our next hour, the race for the white house appears to be really tight. what happens if the vote is all tieded up. we'll show you what could happen if there's an electoral college tie. from 17 billion chips worldwide to a world of super-connected intelligence. the potential of freescale unlocked. nyse euronext. unlocking the world's potential. to investing with knowledge. the potential of td ameritrade unlocked. nyse euronext. unlocking the world's potential. customer erin swenson bought so, i'm happy. today. sales go up... i'm happy. it went out today... i'm happy. what if she's not home? (together) she won't be happy. use ups! she can get a text alert, reroute... even reschedule her package. it's ups my choice. are you happy? i'm happy. i'm happy. i'm happy. i'm happy. i'm happy. happy. happy. happy. happy. (together) happy. i love logistics. governor of getting it done. you know how to dance... wi
with races all tied up in places like nevada, arizona, montana, north dakota, wisconsin and connecticut. it could be a nail biter on tuesday night. athena jones, cnn, washington. >>> and in our next hour, the race for the white house appears to be really tight. what happens if the vote is all tieded up. we'll show you what could happen if there's an electoral college tie. from 17 billion chips worldwide to a world of super-connected intelligence. the potential of freescale unlocked....
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i mean, that certainly is really all that he needs, but in addition to that, he will probably win nevada, and i agree with ann. it's very, very close in florida. i'm not ready to say that romney will win it, but it is very close. i still think -- you know i have been saying this for several weeks that the latino vote will give president obama more than an edge in places like florida and nav mav and colorado and arizona even possibly to be able to give him that win, but i do think, again, going into it, he has the lead in terms of the paths to get to 270 from an electoral standpoint, so i think the obama campaign is feeling very good right now. >> let me ask you about this, because the romney campaign is telling allies to sort of talk up the republican chances in democratic leaning states, forcing obama on defense is what they're trying to do. is this a strategy, do you think, that can work by just trying to send out that message? >> well, look, momentum and the image of momentum is important for both camps, and there's people who like to vote for the winner. they like to say on wednesday
i mean, that certainly is really all that he needs, but in addition to that, he will probably win nevada, and i agree with ann. it's very, very close in florida. i'm not ready to say that romney will win it, but it is very close. i still think -- you know i have been saying this for several weeks that the latino vote will give president obama more than an edge in places like florida and nav mav and colorado and arizona even possibly to be able to give him that win, but i do think, again, going...
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nevada is one of the worst states for housing. nevada and florida. host: 61.2% of all nevada mortgages are underwater. nevada has the highest unemployment rate in the country. they moved from 14% to a 11.8%. still fantastically high. one reason -- they moved from 14% to 11.8% host: virginia has one of the lowest unemployment rates. if you believe the polls, they think mitt romney might win virginia. barack obama mike win of nevada, where the unemployment rate is much higher. -- might win nevada, where the unemployment rate is much higher. guest: there are complicated reasons for that. virginia has seen quite a bit of uncertainty lazy. with the fiscal cliff, are a lot of government workers who live in virginia. with the potential spending cuts and defense cuts coming, it is making employers shaky about hiring. host: if you look at manufacturing in pennsylvania, it mirrors ohio in terms of the employment rate. have you looked at that states? guest: the unemployment rate has not moved a lot. that could be one reason why voters are still trying to decide
nevada is one of the worst states for housing. nevada and florida. host: 61.2% of all nevada mortgages are underwater. nevada has the highest unemployment rate in the country. they moved from 14% to a 11.8%. still fantastically high. one reason -- they moved from 14% to 11.8% host: virginia has one of the lowest unemployment rates. if you believe the polls, they think mitt romney might win virginia. barack obama mike win of nevada, where the unemployment rate is much higher. -- might win...
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guest: i would focus on nevada. in ohio, the thing to watch is how big the margin is coming out of cincinnati. host: here is the final question of the morning. will we know who was the next president on november 6 for november 7? guest: much more doubtful today that it was one week ago. a lot depends on what happens in ohio and with the provisional ballots. we will have to watch and see. the provisional ballots are more than the margin in ohio. we could be sitting here the day after or weeks after wondering who won the election. host: gentlemen, thank you. >> michele bachmann faces off against jim graves in the final debate in minnesota. rep michelle bachmann is in her third time -- third term and is a candidate for the 2012 election. jim graves has a background in business and is the founder and former ceo of the american hotel franchise. this debate was held in st. paul, minn., and is about all the minutes. ♪ [captioning performed by national captioning institute] [captions copyright national cable satellite cor
guest: i would focus on nevada. in ohio, the thing to watch is how big the margin is coming out of cincinnati. host: here is the final question of the morning. will we know who was the next president on november 6 for november 7? guest: much more doubtful today that it was one week ago. a lot depends on what happens in ohio and with the provisional ballots. we will have to watch and see. the provisional ballots are more than the margin in ohio. we could be sitting here the day after or weeks...
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>> looking at nevada, we talked about the third district and the fourth district, which was drawn and assumed democrats would win it. the republican is in the game. he lost in the senate primary in 2010. that is that type of district democrat should be winning in need to win in order to do well. overall on election night i will be watching the seats that republicans better republicans favored or even been republican. that is how far down our competitive races. democrats have to start winning and defeating republican members in order to get close to the majority. for not winning those heavily- republican seats, they will not have enough. look at the balance of power and where the president is strong and where mitt romney is strong. >> the most impact is seen with the presidential race i think has already happened. i know in talking to democrats that are watching the races, the first debate was fundamentally important, not just because it shifted the presidential race, but because it was a time when house candidates registered to go on television tried to prove moderate credentials. the
>> looking at nevada, we talked about the third district and the fourth district, which was drawn and assumed democrats would win it. the republican is in the game. he lost in the senate primary in 2010. that is that type of district democrat should be winning in need to win in order to do well. overall on election night i will be watching the seats that republicans better republicans favored or even been republican. that is how far down our competitive races. democrats have to start...
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third race that is looking very difficult to call at this point and should be a good one to watch is nevada. another presidential battleground state. i think at this point, most people think obama has a little bit of an edge there, but the republican has shown some ability to get democratic votes and people think he will run ahead of mitt romney in the state. that is a state where ticket splitters could make a difference in the senate race and that has been an incredibly close senate race as well. >> is there anything that would surprise you coming out of election night? >> although people thought republicans would gain control of the senate for a very long time in the beginning of this cycle, at this point, i think republicans actually picking up the four seats they need to gain senate control would really surprise me. they have had a few different things working against them. there have been some flawed candidates like todd akin and richard mourdock. those were races that the republicans were expected to win and now mr. looks like a democratic pickup. it looks more likely the democrats wi
third race that is looking very difficult to call at this point and should be a good one to watch is nevada. another presidential battleground state. i think at this point, most people think obama has a little bit of an edge there, but the republican has shown some ability to get democratic votes and people think he will run ahead of mitt romney in the state. that is a state where ticket splitters could make a difference in the senate race and that has been an incredibly close senate race as...
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particular community than are set at chicago, there was a park called gil part and it was overgrown nevada shrubbery and is a big drug dealing center. dealers would go when and hang out in the shrubbery and then there were a drive-by shootings associated. the residents came and said we can't live with this. what are they going to do? together with the police, using the police know how, they were able to identify here are the conditions that are allowing these drug dealers to be here. they have this cover. there's no police. the police and citizens when in every landscaper park. the police committed to doing walk-throughs of the part and residents who lived in the housing projects committed to calling him when they saw suspicious activity of the park. so as a result, crime and a park dropped and so that's a great example of something that would've never happened if you didn't involve the community and police officers talking together. i co-opt their premises and click of the dialogue and deliberation expert. she knows about different democratic processes. she is the town moderator for a tow
particular community than are set at chicago, there was a park called gil part and it was overgrown nevada shrubbery and is a big drug dealing center. dealers would go when and hang out in the shrubbery and then there were a drive-by shootings associated. the residents came and said we can't live with this. what are they going to do? together with the police, using the police know how, they were able to identify here are the conditions that are allowing these drug dealers to be here. they have...
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we are going to give nevada's other republicans here tonight. the incumbent with a three and a half point lead. he just got over the threshold. democrat shelley berkeley. and five are going to be given in ohio to democratic incumbent brown up to ivan f. points and republican challenger jon mandel. now, the open races, we go first to arizona, and we are giving this to the republicans. real clear politics is not have an average, but led the democrats by six in the latest poll. so for our purposes we are giving it. we will give connecticut democrat chris murphy with a four-point lead on the republican. as you can see, it is a difficult science. we will following the basic, outside the margin medicare. and in indiana, another question mark. real clear politics does nt have an average. the democrat is leading the republican in the latest press be simple, but by only three points, and therefore it remains a question mark. north dakota, we are giving it to the republican. over five and a half lead, close enough to call six on the democrat. and then we
we are going to give nevada's other republicans here tonight. the incumbent with a three and a half point lead. he just got over the threshold. democrat shelley berkeley. and five are going to be given in ohio to democratic incumbent brown up to ivan f. points and republican challenger jon mandel. now, the open races, we go first to arizona, and we are giving this to the republicans. real clear politics is not have an average, but led the democrats by six in the latest poll. so for our purposes...
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points. >> but democrats trail in target states i mentioned but especially virginia, ohio, iowa and nevada. early absentee voting is not where it was for democrats in 2008. >> we had a thing back and forth and every single one of these is a toss up. each one. including pennsylvania. but, tomorrow, mitt romney 8 be in virginia, virginia, ohio, and new hampshire. look at states, and he has virginia, he has to work on ohio, and new hampshire is a toss up. bob: why he is going there? >> he has to win. obama will be in wisconsin, ohio, and iowa, both spending time in ohio. but interesting that obama goes to wisconsin which would indicate he is concerned about wisconsin. if ohio goes to romney, obama has to have wisconsin. >> speaking of ohio, the g.o.p. is 250,000 votes ahead of where they were four years ago in early voting. that is a state that obama won by 260,000 votes so they is wiped out the obama lead. >> i am not a numbers person, i try to pull out of that but i try to look at feeling. certainly, when you look at ohio in 2008, i don't think there is any republican who could have sat her
points. >> but democrats trail in target states i mentioned but especially virginia, ohio, iowa and nevada. early absentee voting is not where it was for democrats in 2008. >> we had a thing back and forth and every single one of these is a toss up. each one. including pennsylvania. but, tomorrow, mitt romney 8 be in virginia, virginia, ohio, and new hampshire. look at states, and he has virginia, he has to work on ohio, and new hampshire is a toss up. bob: why he is going there?...
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>> i tell you this, the people in states like texas and nevada are hoping to have the tax increase because every rich person in the state is going to continue to move out. i do not think it's going to pass, i think the people of california is going to turn this down. jerry brown, the governor has been pushing this, saying we're going to have to rip through the schools and the police departments if we don't pass this. i do not think it's going to pass, if it does, paul, i think it could be the end of california as an economic dynamo, truly, the small businesses and the wealth producers of that state will move out if they put in place a 13% income tax. >> you know-- go ahead. >> california should look at what happened here in illinois. in 2011, little noi raised corporate taxes, raised income taxes, guess what? in the next two months, unemployment surged and businesses tried to flee the state. a real mess. >> paul: and choice seems to be if you're going to put any pressure on the politicians in sacramento to reform, a lot of businesses, jerry brown has been-- they've been chipping in, they t
>> i tell you this, the people in states like texas and nevada are hoping to have the tax increase because every rich person in the state is going to continue to move out. i do not think it's going to pass, i think the people of california is going to turn this down. jerry brown, the governor has been pushing this, saying we're going to have to rip through the schools and the police departments if we don't pass this. i do not think it's going to pass, if it does, paul, i think it could be...
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you just look at these early vote totals, more than 70% of the vote is already in in the states of nevada and colorado. 40% of the vote in iowa. almost 40% of the vote in the state of ohio have already voted right now. the president has been working at this for more than two years. governor romney modeling his ground game on the successful run of president george w. bush in 2004. they say it's bush on steroids. so it's hard to say who has the advantage, but both sides have invested a lot and got a lot out of it. >> secretary of state in ohio say they view the candidates as houseguests as they're eager for them to leave. later this morning george will host the final edition of "this week" before the election. make sure to watch that. and on tuesday night, george, diane sawyer and the entire abc news political team will be at our election headquarters in times square all night long, and it could be a long night with full coverage as the results come in. >> you can feel the excitement leading up to tuesday. >> you can. >> all right. but believe it or not, there are other headlines to tell yo
you just look at these early vote totals, more than 70% of the vote is already in in the states of nevada and colorado. 40% of the vote in iowa. almost 40% of the vote in the state of ohio have already voted right now. the president has been working at this for more than two years. governor romney modeling his ground game on the successful run of president george w. bush in 2004. they say it's bush on steroids. so it's hard to say who has the advantage, but both sides have invested a lot and...
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workers at israeli's grocery stores in california and nevada are preparing to walk off the job in about an hour. it's a dispute over wages, healthcare and other benefits. we are joined live from the store in fremont with the details. good morning. >> good morning, carolyn. union grocery workers are expected to walk off the job at 6:00 this morning. this, after contract negotiations broke down overnight. and this actually follows days of contentious negotiation was a federal mediator and just hours after this midnight deadline passed. just five hours ago. both sides say the labor contract was being extended on an hour by hour basis up until that point. raillys offered to extend the contract for three days and return to the bargaining table but union officials with the united food workers union say that was a delaying tactic. the two sides, as karel mentioned, are battling over a proposed wage freeze an elimination of premium pay for sunday shifts and healthcare benefits. dispute involves about 7,000 union members, 128 railly, nob hill and bell hill stores could be impacted. this would be
workers at israeli's grocery stores in california and nevada are preparing to walk off the job in about an hour. it's a dispute over wages, healthcare and other benefits. we are joined live from the store in fremont with the details. good morning. >> good morning, carolyn. union grocery workers are expected to walk off the job at 6:00 this morning. this, after contract negotiations broke down overnight. and this actually follows days of contentious negotiation was a federal mediator and...
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. >> i don't know what he was doing in the nevada. if i was president of the united states, i wouldn't be flitting around the west and midwest. i feel pretty offended seeing my president floating around, campaigning while people are suffering. >> your response? >> well, mayor giuliani is running around the country campaigning for mitt romney and popping off. the people in new york and new jersey, they're working with this president and this administration, fema, every day, and our focus needs to be. really, the country has been united. mayor giuliani may be the exception to this. focus on recovery. making sure we stand by those who lost so much and need to recover. this will take a long time. the federal government's doing all they can to partner with state and local officials. we flew power equipment from california to help restore power, getting fuel into the area, and direct assistance to help with food and lodging. this is going to take a while. we're doing everything we can that we stand by the people in the eastern seaboard. >>
. >> i don't know what he was doing in the nevada. if i was president of the united states, i wouldn't be flitting around the west and midwest. i feel pretty offended seeing my president floating around, campaigning while people are suffering. >> your response? >> well, mayor giuliani is running around the country campaigning for mitt romney and popping off. the people in new york and new jersey, they're working with this president and this administration, fema, every day, and...
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not a lot of snow for the sierra nevada. it's a big trough with a lot of cold air coming by the middle day of the week. >> a roller coaster. thank you, lisa. >>> with unemployment still high, feeding the hungry is an ongoing challenge here in the bay area and elsewhere. it's a problem that grows more acute during the holidays. abc7 news reporter david loui checks in with second harvest food bank in the south bay. >>> social service agencies say long-term unemployment remains a problem in silicon valley and that's why you ten to see demands for food programs. second harvest food bank has set a goal to raise $12.4 million and collect two million pounds of food over the next three months. it helps to feed a quarter million people every month in santa clara and san mateo counties. these are volunteers to box up fresh produce. they partner with 300 agencies that in turn distribute the food at 740 locations across the two counties. cisco ceo, john chambers, said the company has been contributing to second harvest for 21 years. the
not a lot of snow for the sierra nevada. it's a big trough with a lot of cold air coming by the middle day of the week. >> a roller coaster. thank you, lisa. >>> with unemployment still high, feeding the hungry is an ongoing challenge here in the bay area and elsewhere. it's a problem that grows more acute during the holidays. abc7 news reporter david loui checks in with second harvest food bank in the south bay. >>> social service agencies say long-term unemployment...
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the stores throughout california and nevada went on strike at 6:00 this morning after talks broke down. abc7 news reporter kyra clapper joins us live from the railly's in fremont with details on the walkout. good morning. >> good morning, carolyn. this is the first walkout in the 77-year history of wailly's. it is over wages and retiree and health benefits facing cuts. they say it must reduce costs to become competitive. the union says it is a contract that erases decades of progress for grocery workers. at 6:00 a.m. three union members started their sunday in solidarity. forming a picket line in fremont because of what they say are unfair labor practices. >> we are starting to get a decent contract for the members. >> reporter: the dispute between railly and the workers union involves about 7,000 union members from grocery workers to meat cutters. 15 months of contract negotiations came to a head overnight and a midnight deadline came and went. >> hopefully this will send a message that you can take a little from people, but you can't take a lot. >> reporter: railly's and ufcw remain
the stores throughout california and nevada went on strike at 6:00 this morning after talks broke down. abc7 news reporter kyra clapper joins us live from the railly's in fremont with details on the walkout. good morning. >> good morning, carolyn. this is the first walkout in the 77-year history of wailly's. it is over wages and retiree and health benefits facing cuts. they say it must reduce costs to become competitive. the union says it is a contract that erases decades of progress for...
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thousands across northern california and nevada went on strike. looking live at pictures out of alameda this morning with our camera is. they have been on that picket line since 6:00 this morning at raley's, bel air markets and nob foods. the midnight deadline passed overnight and the labor contract extended hour by hour at the request of a federal mediator is no more. management from raley's and union leaders have been in contract negotiations for more than a year. the main sticking point is health care benefits a proposed wage freeze and elimination of premium pay for sunday shifts. >> i talked to my family and we're ready. we're ready. we're going to fight for solidarity together. >> management says the company needs to cut costs in the face of the weak economy and competition from nonunion stores like walmart. the strike is the company's first in its 77-year history. they released this statement to us this morning saying "we expect owl our employees who are on schedule to work on sunday to show up for work. we have plans in place to deal with
thousands across northern california and nevada went on strike. looking live at pictures out of alameda this morning with our camera is. they have been on that picket line since 6:00 this morning at raley's, bel air markets and nob foods. the midnight deadline passed overnight and the labor contract extended hour by hour at the request of a federal mediator is no more. management from raley's and union leaders have been in contract negotiations for more than a year. the main sticking point is...
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nevada may well be one that we don't carry. what's interesting about ohio, that state does not have a large minority vote. it's about 85% white. if romney were getting the same white vote there he gets in virginia, where he is tied and the romney campaign is nervous, he would be winning ohio. that's also the story in pennsylvania. one quick footnote on pennsylvania. one reason the romney guys like it, even though historically it is more democratic, is there has not been a campaign there. they haven't had the $200 million of negative ads. so romney's numbers are better there in a lot of the states where they have trench warfare. >> people may not believe this, but there is a morning after this race, tom and savannah. and what happens in washington after that? david brooks in his column writes about the fiscal cliff which happens at the end of this year, big tax increases and also cuts. here's what he writes. the bottom line is this. if obama wins, he'll probably get small bore stacis. if romney wins, we are more likely to get re
nevada may well be one that we don't carry. what's interesting about ohio, that state does not have a large minority vote. it's about 85% white. if romney were getting the same white vote there he gets in virginia, where he is tied and the romney campaign is nervous, he would be winning ohio. that's also the story in pennsylvania. one quick footnote on pennsylvania. one reason the romney guys like it, even though historically it is more democratic, is there has not been a campaign there. they...
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their spouses, running mates, all crisscrossing ohio, wisconsin, iowa, virginia, colorado, florida, nevada. and it's gonna look like this for the next 48 hours. >>> the convention was tonight. despite deadlocked national polls, mitt romney faces a tougher road. here is his closing plea to the crowd in englewood, colorado. >> we journeyed far and wide in this great campaign for america's future. now we're almost there. one final push is gonna get us there. we got a lot of short nights and long days, and now we're close. the door to a brighter future is there. it's open, waiting for us. i need your vote, i need your work, i need your help! walk with me! let's walk together! let's start anew! thank you so much, colorado! you guys are the best! >> as for mr. obama, he appeared with former president bill clinton in virginia tonight. this is the bull run, if you're from farther north. this is where he'll get the vote. earlier in the day, he was in the milwaukee area, a key to his success in wisconsin. and here is his last words for the crowd there. >> and if you're willing to work with me and kn
their spouses, running mates, all crisscrossing ohio, wisconsin, iowa, virginia, colorado, florida, nevada. and it's gonna look like this for the next 48 hours. >>> the convention was tonight. despite deadlocked national polls, mitt romney faces a tougher road. here is his closing plea to the crowd in englewood, colorado. >> we journeyed far and wide in this great campaign for america's future. now we're almost there. one final push is gonna get us there. we got a lot of short...
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about the strike under the really super market chain which has 128 stores in northern california and nevada. >> contract talks with union members broke down early this morning. now the united food and commercial workers union has started picketing. changes in medical benefits for 7000 workers. >> happening right now, republican presidential candidate mitt romney is speaking at a rally in iowa. a live look. this is romney's final push for votes in swing state. president obama is leading his republican challenger in iowa in most of the polls. the president had 47 to 42 percent. >>> more pictures now. the former president bill clinton speaking at a rally in iowa as well. the president is expected to join in shortly. obama has a full schedule today. his campaign stops include a hampshire, florida, ohio, and colorado. >>> and president obama and republican mitt romney making final push for votes two days before the election for polls show the campaigns are running neck and neck nationally and the margins in most battleground state are in single digits. the president hit for swing states yesterda
about the strike under the really super market chain which has 128 stores in northern california and nevada. >> contract talks with union members broke down early this morning. now the united food and commercial workers union has started picketing. changes in medical benefits for 7000 workers. >> happening right now, republican presidential candidate mitt romney is speaking at a rally in iowa. a live look. this is romney's final push for votes in swing state. president obama is...
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. >> hello, nevada. >> new hampshire got me the republican nomination, and new hampshire is going to get me the white house. thanks, you guys. >> schieffer: if there's anything both sides can agree on, this is close and could come down to one state, but which one, florida, virginia, or-- >> i think you may have noticed everyone paying's a lot of attention to ohio. >> schieffer: and them there's the wild card. what will the impact that the super storm that destroyed parts of new jersey and plunkedly the lower half the manhattan into darkness have the race? we've got the latest on hurricane sandy damage,en and this we'll turn to the best of the best political remembers, analysts and race watchers to give us their take on the presidential race. we'll start with peggy noonan of the "wall street journal." dee dee myers of "vanity fair." richard lowry of the "national review." harvard university's david gergen. and our own john dickerson. then we'll talk to stu rothenberg of the stu rothenbe rothenberg political reports. allen stanford of the university of virginia center for politics, dem
. >> hello, nevada. >> new hampshire got me the republican nomination, and new hampshire is going to get me the white house. thanks, you guys. >> schieffer: if there's anything both sides can agree on, this is close and could come down to one state, but which one, florida, virginia, or-- >> i think you may have noticed everyone paying's a lot of attention to ohio. >> schieffer: and them there's the wild card. what will the impact that the super storm that destroyed...
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model says obama is ahead in the states capable of delivering that magic 270, namely ohio, wisconsin, nevada, and iowa. so how does this model work? >> so every poll that people read about goes into the model and sees the projection in some way. >> reporter: there might be 30 or 40 of them a day in this year's poll-happy universe. silver's model averaging all those polls and then factors in how well they've performed in past elections and he comes up with probabilities like gambling odds. >> florida, for example, we had romney with a 60% chance of winning. that's how often when you have a one-point lead in the average of polls you've wound up winning in the past. in ohio we have obama with about a 75% chance of winning because he has a larger lead so it's more likely to be enduring on election day itself. >> i'm projecting that you need to win 99 games in order to make it to the post office. >> reporter: think money ball, the book and film about how a geek used numbers to outdo the oakland a's scouts using their intuition to find undervalued baseball players who could win. in other words, th
model says obama is ahead in the states capable of delivering that magic 270, namely ohio, wisconsin, nevada, and iowa. so how does this model work? >> so every poll that people read about goes into the model and sees the projection in some way. >> reporter: there might be 30 or 40 of them a day in this year's poll-happy universe. silver's model averaging all those polls and then factors in how well they've performed in past elections and he comes up with probabilities like gambling...
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but you have nevada which is leaning towards obama and wisconsin is still leaning towards obama. ohio, is my view, is in dispense able. >> where did you read that nevada is leaning towards obama. >> i haven't seen a poll are romney leading first. it's one-third hispanic, and this heavily unionized. >> i have people there and they don't think that at all. >> that's the wrong neighborhood. >> here's the point i want to make. the polls today are regarded at microscopically perfect, you and i know, say ten years ago when you were still doing this show because of your tenacity, and because of my leniency. >> 0 years ago. >> 20 years ago, 30, polls were regarded as a rock makes, these polls today have -- as approximation, these polls today are -- >> there is money to be made. >> one or two -- [ talking over one another ] >> i hate to see this come to an end. >> polls are not that precise. >> if they weren't that precise, why do politicians spend that much money on them? >> they are false idols. they are worshiping the false idol. >> the media are more obsessed with polling than before.
but you have nevada which is leaning towards obama and wisconsin is still leaning towards obama. ohio, is my view, is in dispense able. >> where did you read that nevada is leaning towards obama. >> i haven't seen a poll are romney leading first. it's one-third hispanic, and this heavily unionized. >> i have people there and they don't think that at all. >> that's the wrong neighborhood. >> here's the point i want to make. the polls today are regarded at...
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nevada, colorado, ohio, wisconsin, ohio, virginia, new hampshire, and florida. check out how close these numbers are in the swing states. ohio could be the most important state with 50%, mitt romney, 427%. and in virginia, commit amitt romne- and the same in florida and the same and you hampshire. new hampshire, wisconsin, ohio and iowa, and the president leads in these states but it is in with them at a margin of error. and definitely meant romney is within striking distance. >> as a reminder we will have election night extended coverage on tuesday at 8:00 p.m. in stay updated on our website www.kron4.com facebook and twitter. we have a developing story out of land and the rescue helicopter went down in flames we will be back ah. fire bad! just have to fire roast these tomatoes. do you churn your own butter what? too? this is going to give you a head start on your dinner. that seems easier sure does who are you? [ female announcer ] new progresso recipe starters. five delicious cooking sauces you combine with fresh ingredients to make amazing home-cooked meals.
nevada, colorado, ohio, wisconsin, ohio, virginia, new hampshire, and florida. check out how close these numbers are in the swing states. ohio could be the most important state with 50%, mitt romney, 427%. and in virginia, commit amitt romne- and the same in florida and the same and you hampshire. new hampshire, wisconsin, ohio and iowa, and the president leads in these states but it is in with them at a margin of error. and definitely meant romney is within striking distance. >> as a...
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>>> no solo creo que va a salir a votar, estoy viÉndolo, porque he estado en colorado, nevada, mi estado aquÍ de california, la florida, y veo que el latino busca ser parte de este proceso, y contar y creo que el voto latino va a ser el voto decisivo como lo dijo el presidente barack obama puede ser el voto que determina quiÉn va a ser no solo el presidente de los estados unidos sino la persona mÁs poderosa de este mundo. hemos escuchado que el presidente estÁ hablando de la prioridad del partido demÓcrata de Él como presidente, empleos, mÁs empleos, cinco punto cinco millones de nuevos empleos, los republicanos nunca mencionan eso, que es lo que hemos logrado en Últimos dos aÑos y medio, en eso quiere avanzar Él, quiere avanzar en la reforma migratoria que no ha tenido apoyo, y quiere tambiÉn avanzar la reforma histÓrica del cuidado mÉdico que pronto va a darle a nueve millÓns de latinos acceso a un cuidado mÉdico de calidad. >>> y congresista sobre el tema migratorio porque lo dice usted, es muy importante, la realidad es que despuÉs de elecciÓn del 2010 habÍan poco r
>>> no solo creo que va a salir a votar, estoy viÉndolo, porque he estado en colorado, nevada, mi estado aquÍ de california, la florida, y veo que el latino busca ser parte de este proceso, y contar y creo que el voto latino va a ser el voto decisivo como lo dijo el presidente barack obama puede ser el voto que determina quiÉn va a ser no solo el presidente de los estados unidos sino la persona mÁs poderosa de este mundo. hemos escuchado que el presidente estÁ hablando de la...
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24 rally's and knob hill stores in the bay area. 104 other stores throughout northern california and nevada. all their workers are on strike. there is no word how long the strike will go on for. the remittives out here say that the negotiations between the company and the union are continuing so there is some hope and optimism this might reach a resolution soon. allie rasmus ktvu channel 2 news. >>> overnight a pedestrian suffered life threatening injuries after a hit and run in santa rosa. that collision happened near the intersection of againville road and coffee lane. after the crash we found that suspect vehicle with its windshield shattered. witness tips led to the arrest of christian pena. he faces charges. a felony hit and run, driving under the influence, violating probation, and he has a prior dui conviction. the victim was rushed to the hospital with minor injuries. >>> there was another hit and run. a driver slammed into another car at hone avenue and farmers learn around 12:45 this morning. the victim was not injured anoas was able to describe the suspects car to police. police
24 rally's and knob hill stores in the bay area. 104 other stores throughout northern california and nevada. all their workers are on strike. there is no word how long the strike will go on for. the remittives out here say that the negotiations between the company and the union are continuing so there is some hope and optimism this might reach a resolution soon. allie rasmus ktvu channel 2 news. >>> overnight a pedestrian suffered life threatening injuries after a hit and run in santa...
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no deal and workers at 24 raley's in the bay area join 104 other stores in northern california and nevada on the picket lines at midnight. we asked customers at the san pablo raley's if they would still shop here. >> i would still shop here because i like the store. >> they are the ones that have a reason for striking whether it's pay, benefits. >> reporter: as with most contract negotiation it's both. the union says grocery workers aren't alone. >> they are the fiber of the community. they are family. and they deserve to be respected, because we're all in this together, folks. >> reporter: that is why the weiderholts say they will go somewhere he is if their favorite store goes on strike. >> because the people here are great. every time we come in here, we come at least once a week, everybody says hello and appreciates us and we appreciate them definitely. >> reporter: now we talked to a raley's spokesperson who says the company had no comment, citing a media blackout. reporting live in downtown san francisco noelle walker ktvu channel 2 news. >>> there were signs of movement in the n
no deal and workers at 24 raley's in the bay area join 104 other stores in northern california and nevada on the picket lines at midnight. we asked customers at the san pablo raley's if they would still shop here. >> i would still shop here because i like the store. >> they are the ones that have a reason for striking whether it's pay, benefits. >> reporter: as with most contract negotiation it's both. the union says grocery workers aren't alone. >> they are the fiber of...
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. >> nevada. >> nevada. close but to dean heller. >> all right. next one? >> ohio. it's closed up but brown wins. >> does he outperform the president by what, two points? >> i don't know. >> yeah, yeah. >> if you were to guess, it's going to be a tight race? >> florida, nelson beats mak. then we get to virginia. >> where are you there? >> i guess i would give kane maybe a tiny finger on the scale. >> give it to blue? >> i don't know. >> we'll put it there for now. that gets us through the presidential toss-ups. let's go to the red states if you will. these are a ton of great states. >> flake wins. >> montana, that's scary. everybody, both sides say it's really too close. >> the libtarian candidate is going to make the winning number. >> it could. >> i guess he gets a couple. this guy john tester up a point or two and the question is does that save him? let's do edge tester. >> all right. next one? north dakota right next door. >> berg wins. it's very very close. >> the same way you feel about montana. >> yeah. >> not quite as close. >> yeah. >> let's stick in the re
. >> nevada. >> nevada. close but to dean heller. >> all right. next one? >> ohio. it's closed up but brown wins. >> does he outperform the president by what, two points? >> i don't know. >> yeah, yeah. >> if you were to guess, it's going to be a tight race? >> florida, nelson beats mak. then we get to virginia. >> where are you there? >> i guess i would give kane maybe a tiny finger on the scale. >> give it to blue?...
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leading by more than 2 in nevada, ohio and iowa. as a slighter margins in new hampshire and colorado, governor romney only leads in more at a point in florida and is narrowly ahead in virginia. that gives a reason for them to, let's say, be concerned. >> they need to be concerned because it is not just the enthuse yack enthuse em that's missing p. this is what barack obama does better than anyone else. man test right now in the early vote of look at nevada, north carolina, iowa. mitt romney with needs to win 54 to 60% of the remaining votes in the states in order to drop into the victory. that's a huge lift. i think when you couple the fact that democratic base is much more fired up with the fact that obama for america has been organizing for the last four years. they keep talking about pennsylvania, you can't drop into pennsylvania the weekend before an election, and expect to tip the vote just by buying ads when you have the other team with a fantastic ground operation. >> drive by campaigning won't do it. when you look at pennsyl
leading by more than 2 in nevada, ohio and iowa. as a slighter margins in new hampshire and colorado, governor romney only leads in more at a point in florida and is narrowly ahead in virginia. that gives a reason for them to, let's say, be concerned. >> they need to be concerned because it is not just the enthuse yack enthuse em that's missing p. this is what barack obama does better than anyone else. man test right now in the early vote of look at nevada, north carolina, iowa. mitt...
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so we're also looking at tight races in places like nevada, wisconsin, virginia. we got a handful of really tight races only won by a point or two. >> what about ohio? >> you know, very interesting. the parties have been looking at very different polling between democrat sherrod brown and republican josh mandell. democrats are not worried about sherrod brown. but republicans say we show it much closer. i suspect though, brown pulls it out. >> in the house, in florida particularly, you have some really controversial candidates. one is very outspoken tea party republican allen west and the other is allen grayson, running to return to the house. >> any state that could elect either one is an accepting and forgiving electorate or they can't make up their minds. allen west has actually put up his opponent's mug shot from when he was 19 years old and that's unprecedented. most tea party representatives, no matter how controversial they are, will be re-elected. >> what about harry reid in nevada? we've seen that he has a machine in nevada and can deliver. >> he has spent
so we're also looking at tight races in places like nevada, wisconsin, virginia. we got a handful of really tight races only won by a point or two. >> what about ohio? >> you know, very interesting. the parties have been looking at very different polling between democrat sherrod brown and republican josh mandell. democrats are not worried about sherrod brown. but republicans say we show it much closer. i suspect though, brown pulls it out. >> in the house, in florida...
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how do you think the president is going to perform in swing states like colorado and nevada? >> well, my view is that that hispanic vote, which is key in my state with 43%, it's key in nevada and colorado upwards of 20%, is going to come out in huge turnout because of the president's strong records are hispanics on job creation, health care, and immigration reform. and the perception that the romney campaign that the republicans have kind of written off hispanics. the harsh rhetoric against latinos on the dream act, on the immigration bill, in the primaries, i think it's going to be decisive. and what a president needs, a democratic needs to get reelected is 65% of the hispanic vote nationally and i think president obama is going to top that. and he's going to get close to 70%. and again, i believe that's going to be decisive. and it could be decisive in florida with a noncuban american latinos that trend republican but the central americans, that's who i was campaigning with in the last few days. >> i want to ask about something practical due to the gasoline shortage in new
how do you think the president is going to perform in swing states like colorado and nevada? >> well, my view is that that hispanic vote, which is key in my state with 43%, it's key in nevada and colorado upwards of 20%, is going to come out in huge turnout because of the president's strong records are hispanics on job creation, health care, and immigration reform. and the perception that the romney campaign that the republicans have kind of written off hispanics. the harsh rhetoric...
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i've been in here 23, 24 days, i think we're going to win iowa, wisconsin, nevada, new hampshire. i think we've got an even chance of winning virginia and florida. so it could be a big win. it also could be close. but the firewall here of ohio, wisconsin, iowa -- >> talk to your stake holders. tell them what they should do on tuesday. >> if you can vote early, vote earlier. but don't just vote, bring your mom, your dad, bring your cousin, knock on the door of your neighbor. the middle depends on it. >> vice president joe biden, thank you for your time. good luck. >>> north carolina and colorado look pretty tough. coming up, where does the race stand? we have the results of the latest and last poll before the election. that's next. and we have our top people here tonight. chuck todd, howard fineman, eugene robinson and others. the big question is about big bill. if president obama does win re-election tuesday night, the person he can thank the most perhaps probably is the guy he was campaigning with in new hampshire, bill clinton, the big dog could be the one who pulls him over the
i've been in here 23, 24 days, i think we're going to win iowa, wisconsin, nevada, new hampshire. i think we've got an even chance of winning virginia and florida. so it could be a big win. it also could be close. but the firewall here of ohio, wisconsin, iowa -- >> talk to your stake holders. tell them what they should do on tuesday. >> if you can vote early, vote earlier. but don't just vote, bring your mom, your dad, bring your cousin, knock on the door of your neighbor. the...
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he started in 2007 and is now a state director in nevada. i see it through his eyes. there's a degree, when it functions best, there's a feedback. if you have people going to the doors every day and doing constant focus grouping and constant interactions with voters to see what's moving them, that's democracy at its core. if you are finding when you go to the doors, women age 20 to 35 really are worried about birth control and access to it. then, what you see is that moves the way the president talks. >> it's too cold. it's too cold. it's chilling. it's like the big ad corporations. what you want to do is get a feel for the electorate long before it's election time. then provide the kind of leadership to get people pumped up about your program in advance and have the field offices and your field operation come in as profound tools to get those voters to the polls. >> there is something -- i believe -- listen, what we are talking about. >> i'm amazed. >> i know. i am retail politicking. going door-to-door, speaking to the working people of pennsylvania or ohio, trying
he started in 2007 and is now a state director in nevada. i see it through his eyes. there's a degree, when it functions best, there's a feedback. if you have people going to the doors every day and doing constant focus grouping and constant interactions with voters to see what's moving them, that's democracy at its core. if you are finding when you go to the doors, women age 20 to 35 really are worried about birth control and access to it. then, what you see is that moves the way the president...